In September 2022, the World Bank estimated that the cost of rebuilding Ukraine would be about $349 billion, a number that is larger than Ukraine's pre-invasion GDP and three-times greater than all the military, humanitarian, and financial assistance commitments to Ukraine since the start of the war, and is certainly much higher now. The war, the report found, has had the greatest impact on Europe's economy, where growth in 2023 is projected to be just 0.3 percent. The “shock” of the war was one of the main factors that had slowed economic growth in 2022 to just 3.1 percent, and why the OECD projected it to slow to 2.2 percent in 2023. The war in Ukraine was a “massive and historic energy shock” to the markets, according to a November 2022 report by the OECD. Slower Economic Recovery from the Pandemicīefore Russia invaded Ukraine, projections estimated global economic growth in 2022 would be around 5 percent. But the war will inevitably have broader consequences for the global economy, too. It has looked at the specific military consequences, potential escalation scenarios, and consequences for Russia, NATO, Turkey, and the Balkans. Thus far, our discussion has focused on the impact of the war on the belligerents-Russia, Ukraine-and their immediate neighbors. Part one discusses how the war could end part two deals with the potential for escalation of the war part three discusses how the war in Ukraine may affect Russia part four is about the consequences of the war on NATO, part five looks at Turkey and the Balkan states part six the global economic consequences and the series concludes with part seven. This series takes in the sweep of the war in Ukraine and its downstream effects both regionally and globally.
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